Today I'd like to discuss a very disturbing recent trend in sports: I like to call it the "If you don't win the championship, immediately fire the coach/an important player." trend. I understand that it's the team's goal to win the super bowl/World Series, but what is the deal with this? Over the past few years, it seems to have gotten much worse. It seems like a lot of GMs don't understand one important aspect of sports: VARIANCE
You can't win every year. You just can't. George Steinbrenner doesn't seem to understand this. I know that you're trying to improve your team. I know you want to win the world series. BUT you just can't 100% expect to win it every year. Their problem all year had been pitching, and it was still pitching during the playoffs. In order to give yourself the best chance to win, you want to be as strong as you can in each position. Joe Torre is the best manager in baseball! Isn't that obvious?? Why don't they take a chunk of that 250 million they were paying A-Rod and get some pitchers?
Now, if there's one thing I like about baseball, it's that they play a lot of games during the season, and that large amount of games lessens the variance a good deal. So unlike other sports, namely football, the teams that make it to the playoffs are inarguably the best. It's tough to make the playoffs in baseball. That said, how many games are actually played in the playoffs, compared to the season? 162 during the season, then a 5 game series, then two 7 game series'. A lot of variance can occur within that small of a series. Now, I'm not saying that they should play longer series' (and thank god they don't) , all I'm saying is that you can't expect to have everything go your way every time over such a small period of time.
Ok so forget baseball... the biggest mistake EVER made in sports in my opinion was the Chargers firing Marty Schottenheimer last year. 14-2 during the regular season. And here's the thing. That team, playing at its absolute best, will win that game against New England 50% of the time. I'd say that's fair. And here's the other thing. They pretty much were playing their best. That was a great game. It came down to a last second FG. Now if we think that the variance in Baseball playoffs is bad, think about the variance involved in just ONE game in a league like the NFL where teams are closely talented, ESPECIALLY in the playoffs.
The Chargers were playing amazing football, they had a well established running game, LT is breaking records like crazy, even Philip Rivers is looking good. The team is working like a well oiled machine. Then you lose a close game to a good team in the playoffs, and you fire Marty, who gives you your best chance to win? (Or at least a better chance than Norv Turner) They have the same team, different coach. They were great last year and horrible this year. I mean bad, too. LT can't have an LT like game for his life (although his off days are quite impressive still), Philip Rivers looks like me at a Brookfield East practice... it's just a real mess. And that idiot GM brought it upon himself and the city.
Now there are coaches that deserve to be fired. Callahan, Weis, Mangini... the list goes on. But when you're consistently giving yourself a great chance to win, don't screw it up royally by making a 180 degree change in coaching. It's bad for the players and bad for the team overall. I want to see Marty-Ball again....
Friday, November 16, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Colts: Time to Panic?
Well, let me sum that up in one word. No. With the Colts losing this week, everyone's talking about how they're no longer the 2nd best team in the league. They're saying Pittsburgh... Dallas...Green Bay... uh, no.
Let's talk about Sunday night's game. Yes, they lost to the Chargers. Yes, the Chargers are terrible. I'd say that in the NFL, teams are pretty close to each other talent-wise compared to other sports. That being said, it's quite often that the team making the most mistakes loses. Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions and they still *basically* won the game. Mr. Clutch himself, Adam Vinateri, misses two field goals, including a game winner chip-shot. What else can possibly go wrong in one game? What other team in the NFL can make so many mistakes, and still have such a great chance to win? What other team can make half that many mistakes and still have a chance to win? The Jay Mariottis of the world need to stop pressing the panic button and realize that a fluke loss one week doesn't mean anything.
Another issue for this team is injuries. No Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Tony Ugoh.... the list goes on. The past 2 weeks have been a nut check for these guys, and I think that they've somewhat proven that they can handle adversity. Losing to the Pats is nothing to be ashamed of, and the Colts looked really good in that game, even without those guys. I've never seen Tom Brady under so much pressure... that Colts defense has to be the most underrated in the league. They're so fun to watch, and really talented. And last week they put themselves in position to win in San Diego with all those injuries and after a sick amount of mistakes/bad luck. Just a fluke FG miss.
Put a healthy Colts team in front of either Green Bay or Pittsburgh, and it's a slaughter-fest. I don't care how good Ben Roethlisberger looked in wins over Baltimore and Cleveland. They haven't been consistent. The Colts have played real teams, and been impressive in all of their games. They also play consistently well. Does anyone remember that Pittsburgh lost to Arizona? The only team in the league other than NE that has a chance at beating the Colts anytime soon is the Cowboys, and I only say that because they can keep up offensively, and because Peyton isn't quite himself this year. But he's still Peyton Manning.
Let's talk about Sunday night's game. Yes, they lost to the Chargers. Yes, the Chargers are terrible. I'd say that in the NFL, teams are pretty close to each other talent-wise compared to other sports. That being said, it's quite often that the team making the most mistakes loses. Peyton Manning threw 6 interceptions and they still *basically* won the game. Mr. Clutch himself, Adam Vinateri, misses two field goals, including a game winner chip-shot. What else can possibly go wrong in one game? What other team in the NFL can make so many mistakes, and still have such a great chance to win? What other team can make half that many mistakes and still have a chance to win? The Jay Mariottis of the world need to stop pressing the panic button and realize that a fluke loss one week doesn't mean anything.
Another issue for this team is injuries. No Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Tony Ugoh.... the list goes on. The past 2 weeks have been a nut check for these guys, and I think that they've somewhat proven that they can handle adversity. Losing to the Pats is nothing to be ashamed of, and the Colts looked really good in that game, even without those guys. I've never seen Tom Brady under so much pressure... that Colts defense has to be the most underrated in the league. They're so fun to watch, and really talented. And last week they put themselves in position to win in San Diego with all those injuries and after a sick amount of mistakes/bad luck. Just a fluke FG miss.
Put a healthy Colts team in front of either Green Bay or Pittsburgh, and it's a slaughter-fest. I don't care how good Ben Roethlisberger looked in wins over Baltimore and Cleveland. They haven't been consistent. The Colts have played real teams, and been impressive in all of their games. They also play consistently well. Does anyone remember that Pittsburgh lost to Arizona? The only team in the league other than NE that has a chance at beating the Colts anytime soon is the Cowboys, and I only say that because they can keep up offensively, and because Peyton isn't quite himself this year. But he's still Peyton Manning.
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